There are many different ways to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher. Averaging runs won is a popular method, as is walks + hits divided by innings pitched (WHIP). While those may carry some weight for baseball fans, they don’t necessarily have much credit for baseball punters, who only care about which team wins the game.
A pitcher’s win-loss record only tells half the story, as it only reflects games in which the pitcher received a decision. As a bettor, it doesn’t matter which pitcher is credited with the win. As long as your bet wins, it doesn’t matter if the starting pitcher won the win or one of the relief pitchers.
For bettors, rather than looking at a pitcher’s win-loss record, a better stat is known as a Team Start Games Record, which is often abbreviated as TRGS. It credits a pitcher with a win regardless of whether their team wins the game, which pitcher won the decision, while giving the pitcher a loss when their team loses, even if the bullpen gave up a four-run lead in the game. eighth inning.
Using TRGS instead of the traditional win-loss record will often allow you to find pitchers who are likely slightly overrated or underrated based on their team’s record in games where they didn’t get a decision. Many times a pitcher’s win and loss record and the TRGS will be pretty much the same in the sense that a pitcher with a 10-10 record will have a 14-14 TRGS, but there are also times when they can differ greatly. . This is where bettors who incorporate TRGS into their handicap can gain a bit of an edge.
2013 was considered a bad year for Detroit’s Justin Verlander, who finished the season with a 14-13 record and a respectable 3.32 ERA. But Detroit was 1-9 in games where Verlander did not make the decision and his TRGS was a poor 15-22, giving him a flat loss of 23.4 units, which was the first time a pitcher showed. a losing bet of more than 20 units since David Cone did it in 2000. It was also the second time Verlander has led the league in money losses, having accomplished the dubious feat in 2008.
Other pitchers, such as Matt Cain (8-10 win-loss record, 11-19 TRGS) and Félix Hernández (12-10 win-loss record, 14-17 TRGS) were also among the leaders of the team. league in money losses.
Similarly, there are pitchers who see a huge improvement in TRGs over their win-loss record, like Ryan Dempster. In 2013, Dempster was just 8-9 with a 4.64 ERA, but his 17-12 TRGS allowed him to show a modest profit on a flat bet despite posting lousy traditional numbers. Derek Holland had a 10-9 win-loss record, goal at 20-13 TRG, making for a decent bet, while Arizona’s Pat Corbin had a solid 14-8 win-loss record, but an even more impressive 23-9 TRGS. making him one of the highest earning pitchers of the year.
TRGS is a better way of looking at a pitcher and those who use it on their handicap have an advantage over those who don’t, and as you know, bettors can use every advantage they can get.